Muslim Travel Intent Tracker (MTIT)

Unveiling trends, seasonal adjustments, and predictive analysis that can shape the Muslim travel market

Understanding the travel intent of Muslim consumers is pivotal for industries ranging from hospitality to aviation. The HalalTrip Muslim Travel Intent Tracker (MTIT) is a strategic tool to gauge these trends. As the world continues to adjust to the new norms of travel in 2023, the MTIT provides invaluable insights into Muslim consumer behavior. This September MTIT data and analysis will unpack the nuances of the MTIT for September 2023 and extend the analysis to predict trends for the fourth quarter of the year.

You can read the Muslim Travel Intent Tracker (MTIT) reports for the other months here

September 2023 MTIT Score: A Snapshot

The MTIT score represents a quantitative measure of travel intent among Muslim consumers. It indicates the level of interest and willingness among respondents to engage in travel activities within the next six months.

The decrease in September's MTIT score to 76.8 is due to the seasonality of the travel market. July and August are peak travel months, primarily driven by school holidays. Families are more likely to travel during these months, leading to a high MTIT score. The subsequent dip in September reflects the cyclical nature of consumer behavior.

The dip could also signal the end of what can be considered the "high travel season" in many parts of the world. With schools resuming and families settling back into their routines, it is natural for the travel intent to decline, at least in the short term.

Unpacking the Intent to Travel "This Month" Trends

One of the most critical data is the respondents' intent to travel "This Month," which offers a snapshot of immediate travel intent among Muslim consumers.

Key Observations of Data from February 2023 through to September 2023:

Initial Decline: The intent to travel drops sharply from February's 49.9% to March's 40.5%. This decline is likely due to the starting of Ramadan in March 2023, which typically reduces immediate travel plans.
Seasonal Upswing: Starting in April, we see a steady incline that reaches its highest in August with a peak of 59.5%. These numbers align closely with the summer school holidays, emphasizing the season's role as a high-travel period.
September Reset: The numbers dipped in September, settling at 49.0%. This decline indicates the end of school holidays and a return to regular routines.

Looking Ahead: Predictions for Q4 2023

As we approach the end of 2023, we eagerly anticipate our upcoming travel plans for the remaining months of the year. Our predictive analysis provides a forecast for the next three months.

Key Forecasts:

October 2023: The predictive percentage for immediate travel intent in October is 49.8%. This suggests a relatively stable outlook, influenced by the school term in progress.
November 2023: With a slight uptick to 50.1%, November remains consistent with October. The minimal increase could be attributed to early holiday planning, although the impact of the school term remains.
December 2023: A surge in demand is expected, with a predicted increase to 60.6%. This is due to the holiday season when families take vacations during school breaks.

Strategic Takeaways:

October & November Planning: Businesses should consider these months as an opportunity to prepare for the December surge. This could mean maintaining stable pricing but ramping up marketing efforts to capitalize on early holiday planning.
December Boom: The expected spike in December offers a ripe opportunity for businesses to introduce special holiday packages, extended stay discounts, or exclusive year-end deals.
Understanding Cycles: The cyclical nature of these predictions reinforces the importance of seasonality in the travel industry. Recognizing these patterns can aid in resource allocation, marketing strategies, and inventory management.

The predictive analysis for the intent to travel "This Month" category offers an immediate glimpse into the future, providing businesses with actionable insights.

A Year in Perspective: Analyzing Relative Travel Intent

We have used a radar chart based on historical data from MTIT to compare travel intent across each month. The chart shows each month's travel intent relative to December, which has the highest intent.

MTIT Intent Over Month

Key Insights:

December Dominance: December is the month with the highest travel intent, influenced by the holiday season and end-of-year vacations.
Summer Surge: July and August follow closely with a value of 92 each, representing the height of the summer holiday season when travel intent is nearly as high as in December.
Low Intent in Spring: March, with a value of 65, marks the lowest travel intent, possibly due to the lack of significant holidays and the ongoing school term.

Strategic Implications:

Leveraging High Intent: Businesses should be well-prepared to capitalize on the months of high travel intent, such as December, July, and August, through promotional offers, targeted marketing, and efficient resource allocation.
Navigating the Low Tide: During low-intent months like March, strategies could focus on off-season discounts or specialized packages to attract different traveler demographics.
Balanced Approach: Months like October and November, with values of 85 and 83, respectively, present an opportunity for balanced pricing and marketing approaches as they represent moderate levels of travel intent.

Understanding these relative travel intent values provides a nuanced look at Muslim consumer behavior throughout the year. It enables businesses to tailor their strategies to match the travel market's natural ebb and flow, maximizing opportunities and mitigating risks.

Mid-Term Planning: A Look at the "After one month up to 3 months" Data

While immediate travel intent offers a snapshot of current consumer behavior, the "After 1 month up to 3 months" category provides a glimpse into the near future. This timeframe is particularly relevant for those planning trips that require a bit more preparation but are pretty close, such as seasonal getaways or extended weekends.

Key Observations: This category often sees stable percentages, suggesting a consistent level of mid-term planning among consumers. However, transitional months like September and April may vary as travelers consider their next seasonal getaway.

Strategic Takeaways: Businesses can capitalize on this mid-term planning by offering early bird promotions and flexible travel packages. Since this group is in the planning stage but has yet to be committed, targeted marketing efforts could effectively influence their travel choices.

Long-Term Horizons: Insights into the "After four months up to 6 months" Data

The "After three months up to 6 months" category sheds light on longer-term travel intent, capturing a segment of travelers planning well in advance, possibly for major holidays, significant life events, or extended vacations.

Key Observations: This category tends to see incremental changes, often influenced by upcoming seasons or significant events. It offers a glimpse into how far in advance people are willing to plan, and it usually spikes before major travel seasons like summer and end-of-year holidays.

Strategic Takeaways: This data suggests an opportunity for businesses to offer advanced booking discounts and comprehensive travel packages. These travelers are in the early planning stages, so informative and inspirational marketing campaigns could be particularly effective.

MTIT Destination Preferences

In the MTIT surveys, the participants are questioned about the destinations they planned to visit. The word cloud shows the aggregated results of the surveys conducted from February to September 2023.

MTIT Destination Preferences Word Cloud

The top response for desired travel destinations is Saudi Arabia, most likely showing a strong desire to perform Umrah. Spain, known for its rich Islamic history, remains popular, as does Canada, with its stunning natural landscapes and vibrant cities like Toronto and Vancouver. Singapore is also gaining popularity as an Asian destination.

Conclusion

The MTIT serves as more than just a barometer of Muslim travel intent; it's a valuable predictive tool that can influence a range of sectors, from tourism to retail. By understanding the September 2023 MTIT score and predicting trends for the fourth quarter, industry stakeholders can better align their strategies to capitalize on consumer behavior. Whether it's airlines adjusting their routes or travel agencies tailoring their packages, the data-driven insights from this analysis offer a competitive edge in a dynamic market.